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Where are you on Peak Oil?
The chief economist of the International Energy Agency, Fitah Birol, has stated that production of oil will peak and start to decline in the next decade.
As I see it, peak oil is not so much related to how much there physically is in the ground, but how easy it is to access, the development of technology, the economic and political situation in host nations, consumption patterns, oil price and geopolitical issues (OPEC, USA and Russia being the players who like to, well, play around). All of the above are inter-related in a complex web of feedback loops.
Pundits seem to be split into three groups:
1. Peak Oil is coming soon
2. Peak Oil is a myth
3. We won't know until we get there
I've tended towards the third. Where are you, and why?
As I see it, peak oil is not so much related to how much there physically is in the ground, but how easy it is to access, the development of technology, the economic and political situation in host nations, consumption patterns, oil price and geopolitical issues (OPEC, USA and Russia being the players who like to, well, play around). All of the above are inter-related in a complex web of feedback loops.
Pundits seem to be split into three groups:
1. Peak Oil is coming soon
2. Peak Oil is a myth
3. We won't know until we get there
I've tended towards the third. Where are you, and why?
Replies to This Discussion
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Permalink Reply by Els Heynssens on -
I think the biggest issues are the consumption patterns. The oil price will affect the consumption a little bit, but not enough to make a change.
I think the current oil sources will be empty sooner than most people think. If the consumers are not ready for a life without oil (and they won’t), then they will happily pay higher prices. This gives the opportunity to the oil industry to find and tap from new oil sources. And the money that comes from higher prices will be used to develop the technology they need (in stead of developing sustainable energy production).
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Permalink Reply by Gareth Kane on -
The IEA has been accused of exaggerating potential production and covering up the fact that oil is peaking right now. If true, this is seriously scary stuff. Hopefully we can shift to a low carbon economy and avoid Mad Max-style oil wars.
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Permalink Reply by Gareth Kane on
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If anyone wants to learn more about Peak Oil, then I've just posted a profile of M King Hubbart, of Hubbert Curve fame, on Green Gurus.
In researching peak oil for this profile, I kept away from peak oil organisation documents and focussed on Governmental and academic reports. My view has changed from point 3 above to point 1!
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